The seat of GOP Sen. Kit Bond is up in 2010, and all eyes in Missouri are waiting for Bond, who will turn 71 that year, to signal his re-election plans. Missouri SoS Robin Carnahan seems to be topping a lot of short lists of potential candidates to take on Bond, but if not her, then who should run? And if Bond retires, who do you see stepping up for Team Red?
35 thoughts on “MO-Sen: Statewide Recruitment Thread”
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Matt blunt, Sarah Steelman, even Hulshof. Jo ann Emerson might also run, Jim Talent would certainly probably go for it, and Todd Akin might try.
She came very close in a very conservative district. She could probably win state wide.
Hopefully Hulshof. Because his campaign for Governor was wildly successful.
if he fixes his image by 2012, i could see him going after mcCaskill, and her losing. it would be close, but considering the state went for mccain, i think it’s slowly moving away from us.
If Bond runs again, the race strongly leans his way. He is powerful, influential, and fairly popular among both conservatives and moderates, and even some Democrats. If he retires, it’s a true toss-up and will comes down to the strength of each party’s candidates. There is a small rift in the Missouri Republican Party, with Sam Graves basically in conflict with everyone else, including Kit Bond. So if Bond retires and Graves runs, the GOP primary is all but guaranteed to be divisive.
The Democrats have a fairly small bench at the moment but there is potential for a strong bench in the future, after the state office holders do their time.
Robin Carnahan is by far the top choice; everyone else is second-tier. She just won re-election as Secretary of State with more votes than anyone in Missouri history. If she runs, the race probably leans Democratic regardless of who the Republicans put up.
Judy Baker probably has a decent shot if she follows McCaskill’s playbook.
Chris Koster surely will run for higher office soon, but I don’t think he will in 2010. He will likely have problems in the Democratic primary, since he just switched from a Republican to run for Attorney General in a wave election on Jay Nixon’s coattails. I almost voted for the Republican over this sycophant.
Susan Montee would probably be seen as too similar to McCaskill, being another female State Auditor, but that may not be a factor.
Clint Zweifel is probably unlikely to run. He was just elected State Treasurer this year, and by only 3%.
Jay Nixon is also very unlikely. He was AG for 16 years before running for a higher office, passing up several opportunities along the way. And he was just elected Governor this year.
Russ Carnahan, although a Carnahan, may seem too liberal for the state, since he actually has a current voting record to exploit.
Lacy Clay and Emanual Cleaver (my Congressman in Kansas City) are pretty liberal, in accordance with their districts, and would have a very tough time statewide.
Ike Skelton is 77 and very powerful in the House, as chair of Armed Services. He’s staying put.
Contrary to appearances, the Republicans don’t have an outstanding bench either. They hold only one state office, although they control both houses of the state legislature.
Peter Kinder was easily intimidated out of the open Governor’s race.
Kenny Hulshof just lost the Governor’s race by 19%.
Jim Talent didn’t even complete a full term before losing re-election and never was very popular. Plus, lobbying is a lot more lucrative and a better fit for his priorities.
Matt Blunt is the Missouri version of George W. Bush. He has no chance statewide for many years, but he’s also very young.
Other recent losers who may run again are former Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who lost the GOP primary for Governor, and her would-be replacement Brad Lager, the odious ultra-conservative State Senator who lost by 3%. Both are possibilities, but I think Lager is the more likely of the two.
You have to go to the Congressional delegation to find top-tier candidates. All but one are under 60 years old.
Roy Blunt recently gave up his position as the #2 Republican in the House after two demoralizing elections. This leaves him more free to campaign for Senate if he choses, but he’s still a Blunt.
Blaine Luetkemeyer just won his seat in Congress, so it’s probably too early for him. Ironically, Judy Baker–the Democrat he barely defeated–probably stands a better chance statewide.
Todd Akin is a total wildcard to me, as is Jo Ann Emerson. Both represent strongly Republican districts, although Emerson appears to be more moderate than her counterparts. Either could be possibilities.
Sam Graves is a very likely candidate, but he would have a tough road through the primary. He is not well liked by many in the Missouri Republican Party, including Kit Bond, and the establishment would probably line up behind whoever Bond supports. Graves ran a 2004 campaign in 2008, but still won by a comfortable margin in this conservative district against a big city liberal and her San Francisco values. It’s unlikely that nonsense will work statewide.
If I had to make a prediction now, this is what it would be:
1. Bond retires.
2. Robin Carnahan runs and clears the Democratic field.
3. Sam Graves and one or two other GOP House members endure a bitter primary fight. Graves loses.
4. Carnahan wins with at least 55%.